Skip to main content

tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  April 16, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

4:00 am
guy: no deal and wolfgang tells bloomberg there will be no new money for greece at the meeting. jack lew warns europe that a greg's it could have -- a gre could have consequencesxit. answers called on from local citizens. >> it is 9:00 in london.
4:01 am
welcome. we are here in london. i am guy johnson and francine is not here. she will be back tomorrow. we start with the bloomberg exclusive's. an infusion of fresh cash. the real deadline for greece is june 30 and it is up to greece if they want to stay in the bailout program. hans nichols is in berlin. the finance minister does not appear to be in a mood for compromise. >> no. the only way you could see compromise here is if he says now is not the time to have talks on further debt restructuring and may -- it may be time after june 30. there are so many payments that have to come through and it all the pens on how you look at it.
4:02 am
it is either reality or pessimism. you can almost hear the frustration and the words he chooses. >> the problem has been extended twice and runs through june. if greece wants the remaining funds, a solution must be found. >> the deadline is the 30th of june. >> that contradicts what he has been saying and he is hopeful for the deal at the end of the month to unlock some that is in the bill fund to help. the have debt rolling over today. and to come in may, there is the payment and a bigger one in june when greece gets a weaker
4:03 am
negotiating position. elsewhere, he says he will destroy the previous economic improvements. it is hard to be optimistic. you look at yesterday and a three year note is up 24-25% on the yield. guy: yes. a little frustrated with greece. not just frustrated with greece. talk about the government. he is not exactly happy there. >> he seems to think that germany -- she is concerned about germany becoming too strong and he says it could erode the competitiveness in the european union. >> the problem is that overall
4:04 am
europe is in a good economic situation and it is in a norm is dynamic of the globalization of the world economy. it is linked to competitiveness. >> the conversation tends to be on greece not giving enough to be in the euro zone. that may be true. there is another side. in the public press germans push for closer integration and migration -- monetary integration. it means abiding by rules set out and that is his line and has been that way for the last -- almost since 2012. guy: thank you. the german finance minister was not the only minister we were talking to. jack lew spoke to greece and
4:05 am
will hold a meeting. the head of the meeting is peter cook and he sat down with him. >> greece needs to get down to the technical work of making a list of changes in policy that it is prepared to put in place and work with the institutions to come to a mutual understanding of a path forward so they can get out of a cycle of being in one crisis and another. the -- the rhetoric was not helpful early and i said the signal to both the greek government and to the institutions, as they are now called. everyone has to tempt down the rhetoric and get to the technical work of policies that have three put in place to address it. obviously, it would be better if the work was done and not over the next six weeks. there is not time.
4:06 am
the president will speak. it is not bilateral. >> is their economic interest in making grease stay in the eurozone? >> i think there is no doubt that, if this leads to a crisis like greece leaving the euro it will cause disruption. i have said consistently that no one should think that all of the risk of a change like that is predictable in advance and in even if the contagion is less than 2012 and earlier, it would not be a good thing from the rig -- for the economy just recovering from a recession to have uncertainty introduced.
4:07 am
guy: that was jack lew talking to peter cook about interesting angles coming out on the greece story. we will have more on the interview throughout the day as you watch on let's carry on the conversation. mario said it was recovering and continued backing greece. for more on the market reaction we have the global economist joining us. let's start off greece. wolfgang is clearly running out of patience and has run out of patience with greece. as soon as the dates come up your sense of how close the story now is? there is a big payment due on the 12th and they are running out of money. but a are.
4:08 am
in june, it will be the crunch point. it gives us two months before some plan is put in place. there will be financial help from partners. if they don't, they are looking at the edge of the of this and we do not know what is down there. >> we don't and we have talked about it for the last seven years. the you get a sense from talking that is manageable. >> i think that is the view. banks around the world have covered it. the greek problems and the rest of the world are building up to
4:09 am
a situation where we can isolate the worst comes to the worst. the kind of quiet -- the kinds of consequences for the global financial systems is not to say that it will not have problems. the core has concerns about the politics and the question in most people's mind. >> what do you hear from clients about merkel question mark issue prepared to be the chancellor to push someone out of the eurozone? >> it is a good stumbling block. i do nothing germany wants to be seen as the one that breaks up the eurozone. it is interesting to discern what politicians are telling us. we are hearing a hardline message and merkel will come
4:10 am
along and smooth over some of the rough edges. guy: how to why tease apart market fits around greece and the impact of qe? >> they are separate stories. guy: they are in the assets. >> it is primarily qe. greece is not benefiting from qe. it is out there and what seems to be happening is a classic mechanism going down because of huge amounts of liquidity in the economy. in the event that greece were to go i'm not sure what would happen. >> would it go up or down? >> exactly. >> it changes it from being a
4:11 am
fixed exchange rate. >> exactly right. you will convey history of the monetary union and the standards and we have all fallen apart in some way. without the fiscal and monetary support, the eurozone is different and as he pointed out, the fiscal support is clearly there. >> if i could bank it out of the system, what would i be left with, in terms of negatives for the european story? would greece have the negative shadow or with the germans be right in saying that it is not going to be a problem? i'm trying to get a sense of what happens afterwards. >> the numbers are up. without them, it would not be
4:12 am
that different. sentiment is recovering and in the moment we are in calm waters. guy: ok. we will talk about that later. stay with us. peter cook will be back to talk about the oil prices and other things going on in the global economy. we are trying to tease out the market effect and all you can say is that we are seeing a curve moving and the greek curve is a weird thing with much of greek debt being held in the private sector. you can see that we have a significant pickup in the yield pricing and people are a little short on the short end of the greek curve. right. or what else are we looking at? vladimir putin is hosting his annual television call-in show today. it is a direct line and the
4:13 am
president will face in fetid questions on the economy and the ruble. -- the president will face vetted questions. last year he fell short of five hours. he has a fair amount of things he needs to talk about. one of which is oil. there is speculation of a slow down in a shield boom leading to a price let's. this is as they meet in paris today and separately, it is 3030 -- 13:30, london time. accelerating to the fastest level since march. from a year earlier, volkswagen and right now -- renault got a
4:14 am
boost. vladimir putin will take your calls and you can phone in and ask questions. ryan chilcote has the number will stop that is up next. a little later, we will look at the outlook on the slow down. netflix source to a record high. how would frank underwood put it? we love viewers more than sharks love blood. ♪
4:15 am
4:16 am
4:17 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching the polls. we are on your phone and your desktop. to russia, vladimir putin hostess annual call-in session today. it will go directly to the leader. the calls pour in for hours and last year, questions from edward snowden. what should the russian people be asking vladimir putin? let's bring in ryan. what kind of questions do we expect?
4:18 am
>> you saw the trailer and some of the questions are going to be about the showdown with the west and you see russian fighter jets . the message is a patriotic one that russia will standup for its interests. last year, the big highlight was edward snowden and we can expect phone call from inside crimea. the reality is that what the russians want to hear about is the economy. they are worried about wages and inflation. i think we can expect things
4:19 am
that are stage-managed and he will be ready to speak about that. guy: he is taking a pay cut. i am not sure it is up to last year's standards. >> the idea of the official declaration is to show that russian officials are above board and it is an exercise with vladimir putin officially making $150,000/year. he is taking a pay cut and this year, because if you look around russia everyone is teetering on recession and as everyone points out, one was the last time you saw vladimir putin do anything.
4:20 am
it is a parallel universe of the president paying cash. guy: thank you very much. ryan chilcote will be with us as we wait for vladimir putin. in the next hour, he is going to take the podium at 10:00. it will be interesting to see what questions he gets asked. peter dixon is still with us. we have seen the economy move over the last 24 hours. there is an expectation that u.s. drillers will see a greater drop and the flip side of it is the saudi's aggressively pumping. what is the outlook? >> you have the chinese in the
4:21 am
mix and the economy is slowing and will slow further. you see the slow in demand and added to the fact, the reduce of the market and it suggests quite some time will remain and, as -- click sectors by the impacts of this on inflation. we get to the back end of this year and the drop in oil will start to work its way out. it will remain low for quite a. of time -- it will remain low for quite a span of time. can we have higher inflation? what does it mean for the global economy? >> we would expect inflation and the move back towards 1%.
4:22 am
that is below central targets and i think, in all circumstances, you have the economy and lower oil prices. guy: nice to see you and thank you for your time. right, coming up, the ceo founder considers his own exit if labor wins the election.
4:23 am
4:24 am
4:25 am
>> there are circumstances where i would leave, regrettably. it is about time we contemplate read domicile in -- redom iciling. guy: strong words. you can watch the debate with spencer and other city business leaders later today on the politics show at 11:00 a.m.. anna edwards joins me to talk about that. so, it was a right of center panel. anna: you have people in the
4:26 am
middle. guy: right of center. >> we had the response on what it was. until recently, the treasurer of the conservative body. guy: lots of shock. tonight the baby seat -- the bbc has a debate. >> you will see a number of people behind left turns again. this is the opposition leader debate and people want to be in power. nicholas of the snp will be there, among others. guy: looking forward to that.
4:27 am
that is at 11:00. coming up we will talk about oil. that is up next. we will see you in a moment. ♪
4:28 am
4:29 am
4:30 am
. . . guy: welcome back. you're watching "the pulse." we're in london. these are the top headlines. in an exclusive interview wolfeberg ruled out concessions to greece and schaeuble said no concessions. >> the program runs until june 30 and if greece wants the
4:31 am
funds, solution must be found. >> the year deadline is june 30. >> that's the deadline of the program. guy: the u.s. treasury secretary has been speaking to bloomberg about greece and warned about the uncertainty a exit from the greek euro would create. >> no doubt if this leads to a crisis such as greece leaving the euro zone, it will cause an enormous amount of disruption and hardship in greece. i have said consistently no one should think all of the risk of a change like that is predictable in advance. and you know even if the contagion risk is much less now than it was, say 2012 and earlier, it would not be a good thing in a world economy just recovering from a deep recession to have that kind of uncertainty introduced.
4:32 am
guy: the greece casting a shadow over europe at the moment. there is some good news european car growth sales accelerated in march and the european automobile manufacture association said rental station climbed to 1.6 million cars. the match gain was the biggest in at least a year. from cars to crude, seems like a logical progression, saudi arabia pumped close to a record amount of oil last month. the country is leading the biggest boom in opec output in almost four years. let's talk about this some more and bring in the international agency chief oil analyst antoine huff in paris for the international oil summit and also the commodities editor, tim colter. for the first question, yesterday the oil price jumped and the only reason i would see it would jump is the fact you
4:33 am
guys said we're seeing an downgrading in output from u.s. rigs. are you surprised by that? antoine: no, the market has been looking for reasons to be bullish. any time there's a sign the production is growing down in north dakota, there's been a blip in prices upwards. the fundamentals remain bearish now. they've seen supply, supply growth was very dramatic in march and went up one million in february and tremendously up from last year. demand looks like there's signs of strength in some areas, some pockets of the markets but it's hard to say there's a strong demand to the low price. guy: tim, it's a fairly bearish picture, you see what the saudis did and what the g.c.c. producers are doing at the moment there's no sense in fact the opposite, they are in any mood to see the oil price go up at the moment.
4:34 am
tim: have we reached a turning point, seems hard to believe that we have. the number of saudi production was pretty surprising, big increase in saudi production last month. i'm not sure i entirely understand why and we'll see what is to come from that. but still, u.s. production is still on the rise and will continue to be. and you know, the interesting thing is that the -- as the price recovers it's just going to mean more supply. the producers have been actively selling futures contracts in the months ahead to lock in a price that they can live with. guy: antoine, tim is quite confused why we're seeing the pickup in saudi output. can you give us any underlying sort of idea what is going on here? antoine: i think the saudis made it clear they want to defend the market share. their share of the market has declined recently in the last year, so they really want to
4:35 am
support the market share, defend the market share, expand it, in the face of rising production from north america which is slowing because of the ending cuts and there is the prospect of iran possibly coming back to the market. there's an effort here to stake out a claim to the market, the market share and prepare for what might be the need to manage iran's return to higher level of exports. tim: is this a return to 1996 or 1998 when we saw big increases in saudi production the early days of that? antoine, do you think? antoine: it's not 1986 but closer to 1998 if you'd like but you can't compare that situation to 1998 because so much has changed in the market. like i told you, there's a new source of supply that did not exist in 1998. that's where most of the growth is expected to come from outside of opec. this is a type of supply that has very different economics
4:36 am
from conventional oil. demand also is very different and there's much more natural gas competing with oil in the market including transportation and more renewables and it's a very different set of circumstances. but you're right, the saudis are increasing production and we're now facing a situation of rebalancing and reshifting of market share among producers. tim: should we be concerned about that? we've seen libyan production sort of recovering as well. antoine? antoine: libyan production has been doing surprisingly well given the situation the country is in. iraqi production has been increasing in view of the challenge the collapse has boasted the country and islamic state insurgency or campaign. yes, there's production increases for many quarters but many areas where production is at risk. guy: tim, how do you see the
4:37 am
saudis viewing the return of iran? how will they play it? will they offset against it? do we understand at this point how much crude could come from tehran? what are the parameters of this? tim: it's a hard question to know. one thing opec has always struggled with is how to allocate production among its members. and you know, the -- whenever opec production declines in one nation the saudis always stepped in and took their share. so the iranians are coming back to the table and want to participate in the market. and you know it's going to be hard to see how riyadh is going to let them in. guy: is that your view as well, do you think riyadh will struggle to let iran back in the oil market? there will be an awful lot of supply knocking around if they don't. antoine: it's not just an issue for riyadh but the market as a whole. there's questions how quickly iran could come back and our view is it sanctions were to be lifted, which is a big if we
4:38 am
don't know what the outcome of the negotiations would be. but if the sanctions were to be lifted, iran would probably be able to increase production from existing fields fairly quickly in a matter of a few months. there's also quite a bit of oil in storage, about 30 million barrels in floating storage kept by iran which could be released to the market almost immediately. now, expanding production capacity bars the current capacity iran would require bringing in investors setting a new framework for investment and that would be a longer term prospect. guy: we'll leave it there, antoine halff from the international agency in paris and bloomberg's energy editor tim colter joining me in the studio. coming up we'll hear from jack lew on the currency strength. that story up next. guy: plus, netflix scores to a
4:39 am
record high. how would frank underwood put it? we love viewers more than sharks love blood.
4:40 am
4:41 am
jack: if you look at the u.s. economy, the relative strength of the u.s. economy compared to other economies around the world explains what the currency valuations are. inherently, coming from our strength and relatively
4:42 am
speaking, less strong economies are elsewhere which is why i'm focusing on the need for other economies to be stronger. guy: welcome back to "the pulse." jack lew speaking to peter cook and we'll have more of his thoughts throughout the interview throughout the day. in the meantime i want to take you to davos. why am i doing that? because we're at the wealth summit and there throughout the day. we caught up exclusively with some of the key players and he's been doing that from e.b.s. wealth management team. first, we spoke to the company's c.i.o. what was he saying? >> mark haferly's group talks on a monthly basis and challenge them whether they go underweight or overweight and trimmed back on the u.s. and focused for europe and said you'll have to pay for growth and stocks that have good cash
4:43 am
flow. you're going to be grateful for a 2% growth rate and that the u.s. is going to accelerate and be the backstop. brexit is, the risk of a u.k. exit is there. the neutral on the u.k. when it came to this whole debate guy, i suppose liquidity, i put it to haferly, what is his view we're in for liquidity shock? >> the i.m.f. are not really portfolio managers or moneymakers for our clients but is important to take it at face value and saw what a taper tantrum looks like and as the fed moves closer we have to be wary but we're positioned for that because ground zero for that kind of move will be in the merging markets where liquidity is the thinnest and where we're underweight in equities. manous: when you see the
4:44 am
emerging market moves we have seen, everyone is saying the fed by big -- willing on hold and his key take away on greece -- and we have the exclusive interview about don't expect a deal next week and said the markets, the e.c.b. has the playbook in place and the e.c.b. will be there on the morning after, a big if in terms of greece to default, e.c.b. will be there the morning after as will the countries supporting the bond, buying programs. so they seem fairly sort of restrained in terms of the impact of greece. guy: manus, you talked to the u.b.s.'s wealth management president about the significance of technology and what that's doing to the business and wider world. manus: yeah, this is their number two cost, guy, after human resources. and i think what you've got to bring into the debate here is wealth managers, typically as we think it's one to one conversations.
4:45 am
and it's where does technology play into that? and it is something they build upon their constant discussions. >> they need to be complimented with all the digital, a touch away high-tech and that's a way we have to go. we're proud to say we have award-winning applications already in place but that's something where we spend millions and millions every year and the third one is the digital attack and what are they doing? and tried to embrace. of course we watch what they're doing and so far we haven't seen anybody really taking off. and very often if you think about wealth individuals, of course they inform themselves, they like all of these platforms. once you have to send your money on a platform, you want it to be safe, well capitalized and regulated and that base isn't yet there. manus: there's the key. once you have to transmit your money and if you're rich, you're transmitting a lot of money and comes down to trust and we saw huge technology
4:46 am
issues on the retail side. and the other thought, the valuation on u.b.s. is quite high relative to their peer at credit swiss. so come to the issue of organic growth he said we're ready to grow and well positioned in asia and reviewing the australian business but love this one last line from him which i said he said well expensive valuations, let somebody else pay up for that. so that was jeurg zeltzer. next up is phillip hillenbrand and at the s.s.b. he'll be with me in an hour and is flying in and driving up here as we speak. the focus with him, i want that to be about central banks, global central banks and where are we in currency worlds. back to you. guy: looking forward to that conversation. that's what you call jet setting. let's talk about the bloomberg top headlines. pakistan's finance minister has
4:47 am
told bloomberg with inflation and a 12-year low in interest rate cuts are now likely. take a listen. >> it is 72 months and the board aannounced a standard a couple weeks ago, so i think any sensible capitalization would expect a further cut in the next meeting. guy: euro star has seen a 6% drop in the first quarter today after the attacks on the office of charlie hedbo. it is having a significant impact on people willing to travel and the numbers were flat overall but the company reported growth in business travelers. netflix shares surged by 12% in after hours after the first quarter results. the video streaming service is also responsible for original shows such as "house of cards" which now has more than 62 million subscribers worldwide and sales grew in q-1.
4:48 am
now coming up gisele says goodbye. the supermodel is walking away from her last runway show. she did so last night. we'll take a look at how she stacks up against her superstar american football husband from a financial point of view. we'll see that next.
4:49 am
4:50 am
4:51 am
guy: vladimir putin's annual calling show at 10:00 a.m. u.k. london time and usually last around four hours. last time it was a little bit less. we'll take a bunch of it on "the pulse" next hour and catch it all online at, all coming up in the next hour. looking forward to hearing what he has to say. in the meantime it's an interesting show from a supershow to a supermodel, goodbye gisele, one of the highest paid models is retiring from the runway, gisele bunchon walking away from her final show from san palo from the brazilian label. and a newspaper said she was retiring to spend time with her family and her body asked her to stop. speaking of her family check
4:52 am
out this chart. she's married to the american football player tom brady and this is the million dollar couples earnings and looks like the fashion star is outearning the football star. that was last year. last year gisele pulled in around $47 million and according to forbes, she has made more money than any other model in the world. those are the kind of figures we like to talk about. talking are figures we like to talk about as well. let's go to our top corporate stories, netflix surging after hours to a new all time high after the companies reported first quarter earnings and were ahead of expectations. if the shares hold their value today, the company's value will exceed that of cbs. who would have thought that only a few years ago? caroline hyde has been crunching the numbers and has alls details. caroline: this 12% surge we've seen will be worth $32 billion. for the interperspective, sky,
4:53 am
worth $26 billion and is in excess of sky's value and could leapfrog the media company it competes so hard against, cbs worth $30.6 billion. what a volatile trading period but still, up more than 40% over the past 1 months, fourth fastest performer in the s&p. and of course it's all about less tv, more streaming, less cable subscriptions and more streaming subscriptions and where the numbers are phenomenal. they now have 62 million subscribers worldwide and added more than was expected last quarter. u.s. up 2.3 million international overtaking that, up $2.6 million and rose and added australia and new zealand coming online in march and japan, they'll open the first asian market in september. u.b.s. says eventually they see international numbers above all of that, $87 million by 2020. guy: $200 trading range in
4:54 am
three months. i guess the question is are these numbers a blip and will next quarter's numbers look good and how much volatility will we see in the subs and then in the shares? caroline: you'll see it to a company that brings in only $1.5 billion. the profit halved last quarter, $24 million alone is their net income, but because of the strength of the dollar and that hit the international subscriptions but the way they keep on growing is "house of cards." the original content and they're spending big and ramping up 30% how much they're spending more on this sort of coverage. "bloodline" is a new one they've got and also looking to other companies to bring in the content. they've got walt disney's marvels and it's about new series and new content and new countries. japan later this year. but the target is to be worldwide by the end of 2016. the question is, is that going
4:55 am
to be china, too? guy: amri is the producer of the show and is in my ear with the ago accident. caroline hyde, thanks very much. now on bloomberg radio. the first word is up next. for our viewers, it's the second hour of "the pulse." what have we got for you? mr. putin, the call-in that will be kicking off in a few minutes' time. four hours-plus i think is the bid this time around. last time it was just under four hours. this is basically, if you're a russian citizen, call in and ask the president questions. i think it's probably a little bit more choreographed than that. but anyway, we'll show you the trailer as well which is no way as epic as it was last year but there's a lovely moment there's a face-off between him and obama and kind of obama blinks which is worth watching. we're also going to be talking to the lithuanian finance
4:56 am
minister. he's coming up very, very shortly as well and get his take on greece and his take on russia and his take on his own economy. all of that coming up on "the pulse" as well and plus from the s.n.b. to the u.b.s., phillip hillenbrand will be joining us manus is in davos and bring you that conversation second half of the program. back to russia. let me give you the twitter question of the day, what do you think the russian people should be asking vladimir putin? what's the question they should be asking him. remind us. follow me on twitter @guyjohnsontv. we'll take a break and be back in a few minutes' time.
4:57 am
4:58 am
4:59 am
5:00 am
guy: no deal in riga. the german finance minister wolfgang schaeuble tells bloomberg there will be no more money for greece. jack lew's warning to europe. the u.s. treasury secretary says a grexit could have unintended consequences. the russian people are online at one. vladimir putin takes the podium and answers calls from citizens. good morning to our viewers in europe, good evening those in asia and a very warm welcome to those just waking up in the u.s.
5:01 am
i'm guy johnson, this is "the pulse." we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. standing by for that russian president vladimir putin to begin his annual televised q&a call-in. the russian people will have the chance to put their questions to the earlier. ryan chilcote is sitting next to him. it is a tv address looks like they are doing the introduction right now. the disappointment is there, i'm not sure the promo on russian state tv is as spectacular as last year. ryan: difficult to improve on perfection. last year was the showdown with the west, this celebrates russia's, if you will, imperial achievements. crimea, you see the russian were
5:02 am
ships off the coast of sevastopol. you hear the russian president talking about how people want to talk for their freedom. guy: here he comes. ryan: the record is four hours and 47 minutes. guy: let me pick up. i think you've got a slight microphone issue. let's hope vladimir putin does not suffer the same problem. ryan: he's probably wearing two. guy: they probably have backup. a time on this? ryan: his record is four hours 47 minutes. that is part of the alpha male proving that he has the stamina to take questions from the people. this is his 13th time doing it. last year he did not bother to exceed his record because people know he can go the distance. guy: what are people going to be
5:03 am
asking? ryan: if you believe the kremlin, they have got 2.4 million questions as of 15 minutes ago. he can choose what he wants to answer. the kremlin is suggesting they are going to talk a lot about foreign policy, the showdown with the west, crimea. there are questions about whether russia well or the breakaway republics in the east of ukraine. you look at all the polls, what russians want to know about is the economy. teetering on the verge of recession. inflation was shy of 17% last month. real incomes, for the first time ever, are declining. this is a difficult economic situation than the one the russian president was an in his first eight years of power. guy: we will be picking this up in a moment. lithuania recently joined the eurozone. we have a lot to talk about with
5:04 am
the lithuanian finance minister, who joins us on the phone. rimantas sadzius is in vilnius. we're just watching the russian president prepare for this phone in in which people can ask questions. this might sound like a cheeky question but if you were to ask the russian president a question what would it be? mr. sadzius: [laughter] hello from vilnius. good question. the only one i could ask would be rhetorical when can we expect easing of the situation that is because of russia's action so tense in europe and is already making influence on lives in the economy of many countries, including my own.
5:05 am
guy: what impact is the russian story having on your economy? give us a feeling of how serious this is. mr. sadzius: it is serious. we do not expect economic downturn in lithuania, differently from russia, where the imf has an outlook of almost 4% fall in gdp. in lithuania we had to look into our prospects of development. we downgraded our optimism from 4.3% of growth in spring last year down to 2.5% this year for 2015. but still, there is growth and reorientation of our exports. russia was a very important economic partner and remains an important economic partner. so this means that we depend on
5:06 am
the economic developments in russia. particularly on the exchange rate of the ruble. but this dependence is diminishing and i think we will sort out our problems so as to regain growth in 2016-2017. guy: minister, can i ask you about confidence? people i talk to and you're part of the world talk about the way they feel threatened by what is happening in moscow. it's harder to get a handle from an economic point of view. do you think there is a confidence issue that exists as a result of the aggression we have coming from russia? mr. sadzius: of course there is a confidence issue. there is an additional economic consequence for lithuania's economy. this is the necessity to
5:07 am
increase defense spending. how outrageous this might sound, this is a consequence also from this situation, the geopolitical situation which makes it quite difficult for us to design our public finances. so i think we must go back to better confidence but of course this would mean that somehow politically, all these issues around ukraine should be resolved. and we must get back to the situation before the crisis started. guy: can i take you to greece now and get your sense of what is happening there? we have heard from the german finance minister overnight speaking in the u.s. that he does not expect a deal in riga. would that be your sense as well? mr. sadzius: yes.
5:08 am
i think those who might want and who would expect a fast-track solution to the problem are wrong. the problem is very difficult and so far we cannot see a very fast progress in the negotiations. easing the analysis of what is really going on and greece -- even the analysis of what is really going on in greece has disturbing data about public finance in greece in 2014. greece did not manage to get to the expected figures of primary deficits. so this is another signal that the situation has deteriorated. but nobody can tell precisely to what extent it has deteriorated. so, really we must know what is happening and of course we must
5:09 am
discuss the possible ways. in riga, i think we going to have a profound discussion. i think we're going to take part in this discussion in the era grip but no fast-track solution in the foreseeable. we had the lithuanian experience from 2008-2009. during the financial crisis we had difficulties going to the market to get some financing for our budgetary deficit but we managed to go there. interest rates were higher. we managed to maneuver with our internal resources, which proves that it's not something that you
5:10 am
should result in one second. an i think we still have time to find the best solution for greece that would reflect both political realities of greece that we should respect and the solidarity and the mechanisms already in place in europe -- the euro, your system and the necessity of its stability. its stability should be respected, which means that all commitments made by the previous greek government should be observed. guy: when do you expect bonds on the international markets and can you give us a size? mr. sadzius: we have no lack
5:11 am
of money. we can choose the parameters of the issuance of our bonds. the only thing that is clear now, the second part of this year will be the target date. guy: it has been a pleasure speaking with you. thank you for taking the time to answer all our questions. rimantas sadzius joining us from vinlius on the phone in a bloomberg exclusive. as he's been speaking, the russian president taking questions. talking about crimea, sevastopol, and if the events last year. also the economy. let's have a listen to what he is saying. mr. putin: of course, this is a very positive trend. this is roughly about 2014 an early 2015.
5:12 am
you will see this is mainly to do with macro economics. and it is quite positive. we talk about ordinary people and judging from the questions that we get, we think it is not quite right. let's talk about the economy. because this is a basic issue. i would like to ask you a question that was put forward during one of your meetings with russian businessmen. you said sanctions will not be lifted.
5:13 am
how do you see the situation? you did not listen to me attentively enough. i said that wages have gone a little bit up but overall income has gone down. i did talk to our businessmen and i said the sanctions are a political issue and we should not actually expect them to be lifted very soon. it is a strategic issue for our
5:14 am
western partners. there's probably not much to do with ukraine anymore. it is more like a strategy on the part of the west. what is important is to do all we can to improve the management of our internal processes our domestic economy. it all depends on that. we just mentioned prices wages and what does it have to do with. it's to do with downward pressure on the ruble, evaluation and also to do with oil prices and, unfortunately, we had this oil has independent economy.
5:15 am
this is difficult to change. but what we have been doing over the recent years, wages have been growing faster than our productivity has been growing. regardless of the sanctions, the ruble exchange rate just had to change. in fact, the management of the central bank benefited from it anyway. it became obvious that we have to approach more professionally and more frontally the amendment of our economic policies. this is what we have done and it is very positive. the markets and investors have
5:16 am
reacted to it. our economy has become healthier and we have created foundations, a premises for further development. and we will talk about sanctions and the ensuing difficulties later. this is not the most important thing. what -- guy: the russian president vladimir putin talking about the russian economy, talking about sanctions, the ruble and productivity. let's bring in ryan chilcote. ryan: very interesting. the first question of the 80 he's likely to get is basically asking him to evaluate the achievements of last year. i think that is interesting. obviously he gets to choose the questions. . he sort of chose to take that first. the big event for russia was the annexation of crimea. as he said it, crimea joining
5:17 am
russia, and the sochi fgames. he also pointed out that inflation has made russians poor er. he said we were able to prevent inflation spiraling out of control. he spent the rest of the time talking about the economy. this is what russians care about. interesting that the kremlin has decided to focus on the economy so prominently in this conversation. they know that that is what people care about. he talked about sanctions and a showdown with the west a little. his main message is we have an economic fundamental problem and we need to address it. and it is very different from the vladimir putin we were hearing from a year ago, which was we will assert ourselves. this is a we are going to try and get our economy back in shape and we are doing ok.
5:18 am
guy: is there a sense, the fact that they have had to adjust this issue of the economy -- is that a defensive measure? feels like it. not on the offensive at all. ryan: the reason vladimir putin enjoys 80% popularity is not just because they control the mass media -- that is part of it -- it is also because his foreign-policy is popular. the annexation of crimea was very popular. what is not popular is their economy teetering on the verge of recession. russians grew to love vladimir putin because for the first eight years of his rule gdp averaged at 7%. disposable income rose every year by 10%. imagine if guy johnson had 10% more spare change in his pocket every year for nearly a decade. that is what vladimir putin, whether his rule coincided with that or whether he help that happen. it is more than a doubling of
5:19 am
wages over a decade. now he has a situation where for the first time russians actually feel poorer than they fell last year. he knows that is going to last a while and he wants to get ahead. he wants to indicate that he is concerned and they are addressing this. he mentioned that the ruble is rebounding, they nipped inflation in the but. it did peak shy of 17% last month. this is what he wants to focus on. guy: let's talk about the questions we could get. what should the russian people be asking the president? that is the twitter question. let us know what you think. @flacqua, @guyjohnsontv. #thepulse. what should the president be asking vladimir putin? the focus thus far. is on the economy.
5:20 am
still ahead, our interview with the german finance minister wolfgang schaeuble. we go back to davos and speak to philipp hildebrand. ♪
5:21 am
5:22 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." live on bluebird tv, streaming on your tablet and on
5:23 am jack lew has been speaking to bloomberg about greece. the treasury secretary will hold his first face to face with the greek finance minister yanis varoufakis tomorrow. peter cook sat down with leew. mr. lew: greece needs to make a list of changes in policies it is prepared to put in place so it can work with institutions to come to a mutual understanding of a path forward so they can get out of the cycle of being from one crisis to another. the rhetoric was not helpful early on and i send a signal to both the greek government and the institutions, as they are now called, that everyone had to attend down rhetoric and get to the technical work of seeing what policies can be put in place to address this.
5:24 am
obviously it would be better if the work had been done six weeks ago and not over the next six weeks. no time to waste. my understanding is the president is going to be speaking to the hellenic celebration day. it is not a bilateral meeting. peter: does the u.s. have economic interest in making sure greece stays within the eurozone? mr. lew: there is no doubt that if this leads to a crisis such as greece leaving the eurozone it would cause an enormous amount of disruption and hardship in greece. i have said consistently that no one should think that all of the risk of a change like that is pretty boy in advance -- is predictable in advance. even if the contagion risk is less than it was in 2012 it would not be good in a world
5:25 am
economy just recovering from a deep recession to have that's kind of uncertainty introduced. guy: peter also asked the secretary about the u.s. dollar and its dominance at the moment on the foreign exchange market. mr. lew: if you look at the u.s. economy the relative strength compared to other economies around the world explains what the current currency valuations are. it is coming from our strength from a relatively speaking, less strong economies elsewhere. i'm focusing on the need for other economies to be stronger. guy: that was u.s. treasury secretary jack lew speaking to our chief washington correspondent peter cook. we will have more throughout the show and throughout the day. want to watch the whole thing? check out let's talk about the european equity markets and what is happening. interesting action on a fixed
5:26 am
income markets. let's talk about the equity story. as you can see, we are trading maybe a little bit in the wrong place on this chart, i'm certain that the ftse 100 is not down by 7000%. let's hope the dax is not down by 12000%. we will fix that and make sure you have the accurate numbers when we come back. after that we will go to davos an exclusive interview with philipp hildebrand and manus cranny i the swiss alps where there is snow on the ground. we want you to answer our twitter question of the day. vladimir putin is taking questions from the russian people. what should the russian people
5:27 am
ask the russian president? so far, a big focus on the economy seems to be the main area people want to talk about. francine: guy:. @flacqua. ♪
5:28 am
5:29 am
5:30 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse," live from london. i'm guy johnson. francine lacqua's back tomorrow. . these are the top headlines. the german finance minister wolfgang schaeuble has ruled out further debt restructuring. on a similar subject -- >> the program has been extended twice and runs through june 30. if greece once to avail itself the solution must be found. >> your deadline is the 30th?
5:31 am
>> that is the deadline of the program. guy: on a similar subject, the u.s. treasury secretary jack lew has been speaking to bloomberg about greece. he warned about the uncertainty a great exit would create. mr. lew: no doubt if this leads to an exit it would cause disruption and hardship. i would think all of the risk is protectable in advance and even if the contagion risk is less now than it was in 2012 and earlier it would not be good for a world recovering from a recession to have that kind of uncertainty introduced.
5:32 am
guy: greece casting a shadow over the eurozone. the manufacturers association says registrations climbed 11% from a year earlier. he marched game was the biggest in a year. -- the march gain was the biggest in a year. the russian president taking questions from the people. if you want to watch the whole thing it is continuing for some time. we are streaming it on there should be a translation. if you were watching before the break you might have become concerned when we showed that the dax was down 12,000%. that is not entirely accurate. jonathan: it is down by 0.66%. a fascinating market. ftse 100 .1% off an all-time
5:33 am
high. diageo earnings off a te bit. it is not the equity market i'm talking about. greek yields come with a three year note going through 26% for the first time since 2012. the yield going north. creditors digging their heels in. wolfgang schaub will not getting much away. i know you are not going to talk -- i know you are going to follow that. yields in greece go north and in germany. forget what was happening with the dax earlier, this is right. that countdown seemingly t o zero. yields on german debt below
5:34 am
zero. remarkable moves. keeping an eye. the german nine year is about to join the negative yield club. in the fx market we go much further south to the southern hemisphere. australia with a monster jobs report. the australian dollar in focus, euro-dollar near session was low. goldman stocks topped $200 and the first time in 2008. guy: it seems the germans are not in the mood to blink/ let's get more from bloomberg's interview.
5:35 am
german finance minister wolfgang schaub will says no one expects a solution from the meeting in riga next week. >> the program has been extended twice. if greece wants to avail itself the solution must be found by june 30. >> your deadline is june 30? >> that is the deadline of the program. brendan: would you want to play poker with him right now? looks like he's willing to let the greeks dangle. alexis tsipras has been trying these gamuts. he went to russia a week ago and i did not get a sense he was
5:36 am
willing to make concessions. i asked do you have a plan. he said you always have to make a plan. i took that as an admission that they are prepared for the possibility of an exit. you have the different concepts the idea of europe, the european union, the eurozone. he said greece will always be a part of europe. he corrected himself and said the european union. he conditionally said if they want to stay in the euro they have to stick with the program. >> as long as we have a union it is not stable. we have to make sure that they competitiveness does not get too large. the common monetary policy is unable to cope with it. that is the problem.
5:37 am
brendan: that is what i asked can we get the same basic financial conditions. he seemed to think if it is possible to have greater financial union, it was a little like a dog on a string. -- doll on the string. eventually he comes back to the word competitiveness. this is the only thing that matters. guy: the germans are one part of the puzzle. the imf's another part. hearing from the imf later. brendan: tom keene is talking to christine lagarde. he has been talking about this idea of the new normal.
5:38 am
guy: brendan greeley will be back in 30 minutes for our u.s. viewers. coming up, we are talking central banks with the black rock vice-chairman and former snb president philipp hildebrand. talking to manus cranny in davos. ♪
5:39 am
5:40 am
5:41 am
guy: welcome back to "the pulse." live on bloomberg television. pakistan's finance minister has told bloomberg that with inflation at a 12 year low, interest rate cuts are now likely. mr. dar: the board meets every two months. i think any sensible thing with to expect a cut at the next meeting. guy: euro star has seen a drop
5:42 am
in sales after the attack on "ch charlie hebdo" the company reported growth in business travelers. netflix shares surged by 12% after hours of the back of strong first-quarter results. also responsible for shows such as of the put has a cards -- the service responsible for shows such as "has a cards," sales grew by 24%. i want to take you back to davos and manus cranny. manus: thank you. joining me now is mr. philipp hildebrand, vice chair of black rock. great to have you with us on bloomberg. if i read another article, everything is warning about a liquidity crisis.
5:43 am
the imf warns we are in for a shock this morning. they are concerned we are seeing excessive debt and excessive risk-taking. mr. hildebrand: i would not use the term liquidity crisis. liquidity might be mispriced. investors think they can have the kind of liquidity we have been used to and possibly when things get more stressed that will turn out to be the wrong assumption. i think that is the story here. investors should be aware of the fact that their liquidity assumptions, which have been formed over the last couple of years, may not be what they encounter when they need it. the question is is liquidity properly priced rather than there being a liquidity crisis. manus; is liquidity not well priced? where in the markets are a we we mispriced.
5:44 am
in equities, where is the liquidity this price? which markets are out of sync. mr. hildebrand: if we knew where the miss pricing is -- the challenge is we have an unprecedented monetary environment. we had a unique interest rate environment not just in germany or switzerland where you have negative rates but it is a global phenomenon. it is very difficult to draw any lessons from the past. we are in uncharted territory. the bank of england, for the first time since the 1950's, never raised interest rates. there are some of points that tell you we are in a unique environment. as a result, the uncertainty is high. what we are trying to say to clients is be aware that what you think is very liquid may not be that liquid when you need it.
5:45 am
at the moment there is no problem. central banks are flooding the market and we have plenty of liquidity. i think the point is that it is very hard to tell what will happen when normalization comes. manus: you touched on normalization and the debate is should the fed normalize? will the fed move this year?? is that the biggest risk to markets. there is a debate that they are going to raise rates and go back to 1937 and reverse and it will be tragic. do you buy into the hysteria? mr. how to brand: -- mr. hildebrand: we will have this debate until it happens and beyond. nobody knows when it is going to happen. it is data dependent as is always has been. the notion that this became a fashionably forward guidance to suggest the central banks can
5:46 am
tell you exactly when they are going to raise rates, that is not the way the world works. they will raise rates when they consider based on their dual mandate it is time to do so. that will depend on how the economy evolves. we've seen some softer data the last month. it is an open question. what we know for sure is that there's going to be lots of debate around this until it happens. manus: you should keep an eye on the cios that talk and say there's a half a generation who has not lived through a tightening cycle. they literally turn your hair gray. are you concerned that this marketplace is prepared for what might come? mr. hildebrand: it looks that way but we do not know.
5:47 am
we may suddenly have a different environment. i also would not overstate. even the taper tantrum after a couple days went back to normal. we should not overstate the risks involved and the sense that the problem is we do not know because we are in uncharted territory. that is the challenge. i'm not sure we are going to see a terrible situation when it actually does happen but i think markets need to be aware of the fact that we are in a unique environment. minas: that -- manus: that environment, mario draghi some detractors are saying the ecb should not go the full way because the data is getting better. at black rock, is the premise that the ecb needs to go the full mile 1.1 trillion and terms upon a easing, to achieve inflation?
5:48 am
mr. hildebrand: president draghi made it perfectly clear that this is not something to be debated at the moment. they are committed to implementing this program. like any central bank, six months from now we have a different situation a big growth spurt inflation expectations moving dramatically, he will reconsider. at this stage it does not look like that is on the agenda. manus: who is going to win the currency war? yen does not seem to know where it wants to go. where do you favor the most? mr. hildebrand: i still struggle with the term currency war. we are seeing extreme monetary policy, not all at the same time. as a result we have seen comfortably -- as a result we have seen, productively,
5:49 am
robust currency moves as a consequence. i don't think this is a matter of a currency war. it is uncomfortable on the other side. the term war is the wrong description. where do we go from here? at the moment i would say europe faces an almost perfect environment for a pickup in growth. you have the significant weakening of the currency, you have the oil price the banks have been recapitalized. very importantly the general cyclical recovery. my sense is that europe should be well positioned at a minimum to get a fairly strong cyclical upswing and that probably puts some limitation on how much further the euro could weaken. manus: it would be wretched if we did not talk about the swiss currency. dramatic move and to a certain extent the dollar-swiss has
5:50 am
moved much more there is more relief than there is in the euro-swiss move. where are we in that fair value debate? without getting dragged into the nuances, talk about the differences. mr. hildebrand: it is still early to see how the economy will react. i would certainly support thomas jordan's statement when he says the swiss franc looks overvalued against the euro. what kind of damage it will do to the economy we have to see. the fact of the matter is that this was economy has proven to be more resilient for quite some time that anyone would have expected, including myself. i think there could be some hope that despite this being a big shock for certain sectors tourism and particular, on the whole this was economy should do ok. manus: back to that in a second.
5:51 am
one thing that came to mind, post crisis, do central bankers communicate better? who is the best communicator? mr. hildebrand: they tried to do what they have always done. to convey the fact that the world is uncertain and they will react to data. unfortunately, the world has come to believe that central banks are no more than the market. they have to deal with the data they get delivered. they operate within their mandate. what they try to tell you is give a sense of their reaction rather than predicting the future. manus: good to hear that central bankers have human elements. thank you for joining us. we will be together later on. that is the vice president of vice-chairman, excuse me, black rock. central bankers do not have all the answers. back to you. guy: a fascinating conversation with mr. hildebrand.
5:52 am
following the russian president vladimir putin. he has been taking questions from a farm to the northeast of moscow. if you want to make sure you do not miss a beat from the press conference, you can watch it online. is where we are live streaming it with a very nice translation over the top. we are going to talk more about this and get key comments. ryan chilcote has been watching and will be bringing us more details when we come back in a moment. ♪
5:53 am
5:54 am
5:55 am
guy: welcome back. what are we watching? bloomberg sits down with the imf's christine lagarde at 10:20 eastern time, 3:20 london time. big bank earnings, goldman sachs and citi out with the numbers. we are continuing to follow vladimir putin's q&a with the russian people. we understand right now we had a question coming in from a gentleman named john. we have not ascertained whether he is an american or a birtbrit. ryan: we are in the part of the conversation where he takes questions from farmers. he took a question from a russian farmer. there are also foreign farmers agriculture is a big theme. russia has introduced counter
5:56 am
sanctions after the eu imposed sanctions. the idea is to raise russia's agricultural production. part of that is government support. that is what the last farmers were asking for. very interesting. a lot of people smiling. in the sense that it is good theater. we are an hour into what is going to be potentially a four or five hour chat. tom: earlier he -- guy: earlier he dealt with the economy. ryan: he is pointing out that he has his mind on russia on the verge of recession. he wants everybody to know he is focused on it. guy: ryan chilcote on the russian president's address. that is it for "the pulse." "surveillance" is next from new york. on this side of the atlantic, a look at how the outcome of the
5:57 am
election in britain could impact london's position as a financial hub. i moderated a panel yesterday and we will be playing that out very shortly. stay with us after this break. ♪
5:58 am
5:59 am
>> this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom: world leaders meet at the imf meeting. their new reality is the new mediocre. will it be here to stay? madame lagarde cannot ignore the
6:00 am
market vigilantes, they scream distortion. goldman sachs report in our 7:00 hour. is lloyd playing find -- is lloyd blank find running a bank? imf in washington, d.c.. joining me in new york is olivia sterns. after the interview with wolfgang schauble, this could be the most interesting meeting i have seen. brendan: one thing that is not going to happen wolfgang schauble has no plans to meet with yanis varoufakis of greece. he said the deadline of the program


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on